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  4. 2018
  5. VOL 40, NO 5 (2018)
  6. pp. 49-66

STRUCTURAL OPTIMIZATION OF THE RESOURCE CONSUMPTION FORECASTING MODELS IN VIRTUALIZED ENVIRONMENT

E.V. Zharikov
National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute»

Èlektron. model. 2018, 40(5):49-66
https://doi.org/10.15407/emodel.40.05.049

ABSTRACT

Providing a given quality of cloud services under non-stationary workload is one of the main tasks in managing a cloud data center. To ensure a given service quality, it is necessary to apply a proactive approach to managing computing resources. It is possible to prevent problems of inadequate allocation of resources or excessive allocation of resources by forecasting the consumption of resources by virtual machines or containers. In this paper, the author proposes an adaptive method for forecasting the consumption of computational resources, which provides a smaller forecasting error than using a single forecasting method with a model obtained with fixed-size training data. The evaluation of the proposed method show that the accuracy of the forecast increases on average from 2.4% to 23.6%, depending on the statistical characteristics of the time series presented by monitoring data. Increasing the accuracy of the computing resources consumption forecast allows to reduce power consumption and to reduce the number of service-level agreement violation by more accurately allocating the necessary resources to the virtualized ap- plications of the cloud data center.

KEYWORDS

cloud computing, data center, forecasting, time series, virtualization, energy efficiency.

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