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  4. 2022
  5. VOL 44, NO 4 (2022)
  6. pp. 03-20

MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR INDICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL CONDITION OF THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE TERRITORY OF COMBAT WITH THE APPLICATION OF THE ECOSYSTEM APPROACH

O.I. Lysenko, S.M. Chumachenko, Y.O. Yakovliev, O.V. Pyrykov, V.A. Derman

Èlektron. model. 2022, 44(4):03-20

https://doi.org/10.15407/emodel.44.04.004

ABSTRACT

Today, the issue of assessing the impact of hostilities on the environment is relevant in terms of forecasting changes caused by military-man-made load from hostilities and assessing damage to ecosystems in Ukraine. To predict the level of impact of hostilities, it is proposed to use a comp­rehensive mathematical model, which is built using aggregate ecological information on the composition of the ecosystem, indicators of military man-made load, organization of trophic networks for relevant biogeographical zones and biodiversity. The article analyzes publications on approaches to the use of mathematical modeling to assess the resilience of ecosystems to the disruptive effects of military-man-made load from hostilities. The concept of environmental security of hostilities is a projection into the military technosphere of the concept of ecosystem stability, given that the objective function in studying the interaction of military technosphere and biosphere is the level of conservation of natural biota operational zones and areas of DB. The structural scheme of construction of the observer of the Volterra system for an estimation of a condition of ecosystems in a zone of conducting hostilities is developed. The classification of levels of military-technogenic violation of natural ecosystems according to the state of edificatory sinus is offered.

KEYWORDS

combat operations, military-man-made load, environment, ecosystem stability, Volterra system, edificatory sine

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