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  7. 2020 год
  8. 42-4

Electronic modeling

Vol 42, No 4 (2020)

CONTENTS

Mathematical Modeling and Computation Methods

  G.О. Kravtsov, А.N. Prymushko, V.І. Koshell
Combined Autoregressive-Neural Network Method for Predicting Time Series
3-14
  A.L. Berezkin
Model of Electromagnetic Field Formation in Closed Space Conditions, Analysis of Factors Influencing its Formation
15-30

Application of Modeling Methods and Facilities

  Yu.O. Kyrylenko, I.P. Kameneva, A.V. Iatsyshyn, O.O. Popov, V.O. Artemchuk, V.O. Kovach
Analysis of Consequences Modeling Tools of Radiation Accidents and Incidents with Spills of Liquid Radioactive Substances
31-48
  Yu.M. Zaporozhets, A.V. Ivanov, Yu.P. Kondratenko, V.M. Tsurkin
Computer Models for Mode Control of Electric Current Treatment of Melts at Specified Quality Criteriafor Cast Products. P. II.
49-70
  I.A. Pilkevych, O.S. Boychenko, I.V. Humeniuk
Improvimg the Method of Developing a Logic-Probabilistic Model of an Internal Violator
71-86
  A.P. Safonyk, I.M. Targoniy, I.M. Hrytsiuk
Development and Research of the Electromagnetic Installation for Purification of Process Water from Ferromagnetic Impurities as an Object of Automation
87-102
  Yu.D. Polissky
Algorithm for Transforming Representations of Numbers in Systems of Residual Classes
103-110

COMBINED AUTOREGRESSIVE-NEURAL NETWORK METHOD FOR PREDICTING TIME SERIES

G.О. Kravtsov, А.N. Prymushko, V.І. Koshell

Èlektron. model. 2020, 42(4):03-14
https://doi.org/10.15407/emodel.42.04.003

ABSTRACT

The authors propose an approach to constructing a time series forecasting model due to the synergy of autoregressive and neural network models. The authors put forward a number of requirements and conditions for the developed model. Among the requirements put forward, the central place is occupied by the requirement to build a model without the participation of a machine learning specialist. Among the conditions put forward to the time series, it should be noted the differentiability of the first order, which makes it possible to reduce the non-stationary series to the stationary one. The article describes the learning mechanism with detailed mathematical explanations. The approach outlined in the article is conceptual.

KEYWORDS

time series, forecasting, model, autoregression, neural networks, learning me­chanism.

REFERENCES

  1. Ryabenko, E. (2016), “Automatic time series forecasting”, Tsikllektsiy «Data Mining in Action», available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u433nrxdf5k (accessed June 9, 2020).
  2. Sean, T. (2015), “Automatic Forecasting in Scale”, Join Statistical Meetup, available at: https://www.slideshare.net/seanjtaylor/automatic-forecasting-at-scale (accessed June 9, 2020).
  3. Chuchuyeva, I.A. (2012), “Time Series Prediction Model for Maximum Credibility Sampling”, Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Tech.) dissertation, 2012, Moscow State Technical University N.E.Bauman, Moscow, Russia.
  4. Bakanova, S.A. and Silkina, G.Yu. (2015), “Knowledge Evolution: Modeling and Applied Analysis”, Nauchno-tekhnicheskiyevedomosti Sankt-Peterburgskogogosudarstvennogopo­litekhnicheskogouniversiteta. Ekonomicheskiyenauki, pp. 173-182, St. Petersburg, Russia, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/evolyutsiya-znaniy-modelirovanie-i-prikladnoy- analiz/viewer (accessed June 9, 2020).
    https://doi.org/10.5862/JE.233.18

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MODEL OF ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELD FORMATION IN CLOSED SPACE CONDITIONS, ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING ITS FORMATION

A.L. Berezkin

Èlektron. model. 2020, 42(4):15-30
https://doi.org/10.15407/emodel.42.04.015

ABSTRACT

On the example of mine drifts the factors and conditions influencing formation of an electromagnetic field and propagation of electromagnetic waves in closed spaces are considered. The analysis of known publications of researches on this subject is carried out. The principles of estimating the influence of these factors from the point of view of classical models of electromagnetic wave propagation on the formation of the electromagnetic field at a given point of closed space are proposed. On the basis of which the mathematical model of formation of an electromagnetic field at the set point is offered. The zonal Fresnel type of electromagnetic field distribution is determined on the example of mine drifts. Methods for simplifying the construction of a mathematical model of the electromagnetic field are proposed, which reduces the number of analyzed factors but does not affect the overall quality of the model. The significance of the developed model from the point of view of introduction of new radio communication systems at large industrial facilities is proved.

KEYWORDS

radio wave propagation, multipath propagation, mathematical model, diffraction, interference, radio wave propagation.

REFERENCES

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ANALYSIS OF CONSEQUENCES MODELING TOOLS OF RADIATION ACCIDENTS AND INCIDENTS WITH SPILLS OF LIQUID RADIOACTIVE SUBSTANCES

Yu.O. Kyrylenko, I.P. Kameneva, A.V. Iatsyshyn, O.O. Popov, V.O. Artemchuk, V.O. Kovach

Èlektron. model. 2020, 42(4):31-48
https://doi.org/10.15407/emodel.42.04.031

ABSTRACT

Paper describes the problem of modeling radiation impact on personnel, population, and the environment in accidents and incidents with spillage of liquid radioactive media (LRM), which includes the process of evaporation of radioactive substances, transport of radionuclides within the emergency room, the dynamics of air emissions and the impact of pollution on certain categories. Shows the analysis of mathematical and software tools for modeling the consequences of radiation accidents and incidents with the spill of LRM among which the RODOS decision-making system deserves special attention. Developed the mathematical model of emission source characteristics, which includes the instantaneous volume concentration of radionuclides in the air of the process room and the atmospheric emission power, which characterize the emergency situations with the LRM spill. Proposed to improve the process of data preparation for modeling radiation accidents taking into account the spillage of LRM in order to further integrate the developed tools into the decision-making system of RODOS.

KEYWORDS

radiation accidents, emission source, liquid radioactive substances, RODOS system.

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COMPUTER MODELS FOR MODE CONTROL OF ELECTRIC CURRENT TREATMENT OF MELTS AT SPECIFIED QUALITY CRITERIAFOR CAST PRODUCTS. P. II.

Yu.M. Zaporozhets, A.V. Ivanov, Yu.P. Kondratenko, V.M. Tsurkin

Èlektron. model. 2020, 42(4):49-70
https://doi.org/10.15407/emodel.42.04.049

ABSTRACT

In the second part of the work the authors present some results of computer simulation of the melt electric current treatment (ECT) process performed on the basis of differential equations by the finite element method using COMSOL software package. From experience of numerical experiments shortcomings of such models have been revealed that limit possibility of their use in algorithmic procedures, which are embedded in the integrated three-componentin formation system (ITIS), described in the first part. The physically adequate computer models based on the integral representation of the ECT process equations, developed by the authors, which are adapted to the specific problems of control of melt treatment modes, have been relieved of these drawbacks.  The results of verification of the developed models by analytical samples are presented, as well as examples of solving problems that simulate ECT modes. The obtained results create the basis for transition to implementing of the entire concept of automation of ECT modes control system.

KEYWORDS

computer model, differential, integral equations, current, field, finite elements, iteration, convergence, accuracy.

REFERENCES

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    https://doi.org/10.15407/emodel.42.03.053
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